The Old Bear's Paw

Russia is readily becoming the power we used to know it as. Whether it was one economic model or another, such as the pre-Bolshevik feudal system, communism, or the current government in place, we are dealing with the same nation. Some of the tension is a result of the apathy of the West towards Russia, which has spent nearly two decades watching its influence erode in Eastern Europe, getting little in return for coming to the table but a series of black eyes. But in fairness, a lot of the humiliation is the comeuppance for the years of turmoil and oppression that the USSR had inflicted for decades on the nations unfortunate enough to stand in their periphery. After absorbing humiliating apathy from a Europe that is unionizing and NATO-blanketed, a North America with free trade agreements, and scattering of Islamic despotisms in the Middle East, Russia has been pushed out of relevance, a once-upon-a-time node in a dipolar world, with America’s continued existence making it more relevant, and vice-versa.

In Milton’s “Paradise Lost,” Lucifer, the grandest of God’s angels, did not want to be relegated to peasant or servant in heaven after his defeat—not after scraping those cathedral ceilings of egoism and God-complex. “On what wings dare he aspire?/what the hand dare seize the fire?” The Tyger, William Blake.

The same laws of human nature apply to Russia, and now they are cozying up to Iran by supporting their bid for “peaceful nuclear power,” and they are doing so in return for a Middle-East oil pipeline to counter the one which Russia was cut out of with Georgia. Furthermore, they are currently conducting joint military exercises with China. Not only that, but the Russians are buying up East European oil companies to gain hegemony in Europe (drill here, drill NOW!) and have, after a long build-up of repositioning their chess pieces, begun to flex their anger. Vladimir Putin and Dimitri Medvedev are both the same man punctuated by a term limit, as far as I see it, and the Old Bear is at it again.

But the conflict in Georgia is not about territory, or maybe it is in part. South Ossetia is a break-away province that has sought self-determination from the Georgian government for some time now. But a major oil pipeline from Turkey runs though Georgia to Europe, the building of which was probably intended to counteract Russia’s dominance of the oil flow into Europe. Russia, which has always sought hegemony over Europe, earned the due stigma and was bypassed by this pipeline. Since then, the United States has trained Georgian troops (some of whom have served with the US in Iraq).

After receiving pipelines and projects from the US, and watching the Ukraine spit in the Bear’s eye with impunity (one in a long line of states to do so), Mikheil Saakashvili, President of Georgia, sent a peacekeeping force into South Ossetia on August the 8th (conveniently while the eyes of the world were on the Beijing Olympics), killing many civilians and prompting the Russian military to retaliate. The asymmetry is reprehensible in the Russian’s response (seeking to destroy key infrastructure), but asymmetry is kinda the goal of war. Ya’ know…overpowering your opponent? It is obvious to see that the Russians are clearly resentful. The disproportionality of the Russian response grinds my gears more than other situations around the world, though.

One might accuse me of hypocrisy on this point, decrying assymetry in warfare, as I sided with Israel when they hunted Hezbollah into Lebanon in 2006. I hold that other position for the pure fact that Lebanon harbors militants and lets them flee for refuge in their county after committing terrorism. Yet Georgia is not a terrorist/guerrilla state and has no ambitions of “driving Russia into the sea” the way Palestine does to Israel. Thirdly, Russia employed an unorthodox obfuscation by claiming cease-fire and then attacking, putting them closer to Anti-Israeli forces in their approach than Georgia would be. Israel is also a democracy facing down a ring of despots, which highlights the progression that Georgia forged for years to earn that privileged title of “US Ally.” They are a democracy, a Christian nation, and were brothers in arms during an unpopular Iraq war when Russia spurned us at the United Nations. Therefore, stepping so far beyond Ossetia, Russia lost the moral high ground as “rescuers.” They further aggravated the situation by not keeping with the ceasefires to which they agreed during this conflict. Thus, the Middle East and Caucasia are not identical, and the assymetry used by Russia is much less justified.

Little brothers do this a lot (I know from personal experience): Georgia felt that it could pester, or in this case harass interests of its big brother. And Georgia felt that they had a license to do so, because mommy or daddy would separate Georgia and Russia before anything could come of it, but the cruelty enacted by the Russians on the Georgians caught in the middle is inexcusable as well. I don’t blame the US for wanting to ensure Europe has an independent pipeline; oil is strategic in nature. I don’t blame Russia for responding, in all honesty. Instead, I blame the degree to which they did. But then again, perhaps the Ossetians should simply leave Georgia and forgo yanking Georgian territory with them if they feel that way about independence (since many were colonized to that region by the Russians years ago under a very different Soviet Empire). Perhaps Georgia should relinquish Ossetia and have done with it. I don’t know the answer. Yet the biggest fool in the center of all of this is Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who opportunistically overshot (in true Olympic spirit, of course) and marched his country to war with a giant, thinking international outrage would protect him under the screen of the Olympics. But fools aside, the Russia replaced Georgia as the tyrant.

I see three powers, Georgia, Russia, and Osettia, and note how each one gives us cause to stand with them – all three of them. Georgia on the point of a barbaric invasion by Russia, and with Russia and Ossetia over Ossetian independence. Two forces are colliding. One is jilted and strong while the other is favored and small. One has fallen from relevance while the other has risen to it. This embroilment leaves five lessons to us as Americans.

1. Drill here, drill now! Even if it does not lower prices, that is more wealth flowing back to the US than the despots that use it as leverage. And on top of that, use nuclear power coupled with solar and flex-fuel vehicles. This will eventually prevent us from having to be the mediator again and again defending every obscure republic bypassed by a pipeline.

2. Assimilate our immigrants. Nations cannot exist in peace and stability while they harbor a nation within a nation.

3. Russia needs to stop meddling with nations on their doorstep and their internal workings. They should swallow the hard pill, becomes peasants in the Trans-Atlantic paradise, and then achieve their true greatness by their better means. They are spilling innocent blood right now, and they should cease their hellmarch immediately and stick to their thesis of protecting only Ossetia if they want to be “peace keepers.” Powers like Russia force colonization on territories of their vanquished in order to ensure a stake in those lands for generations to come. It is likely that they are now harvesting what they planted in the Eurasian thaw decades ago. So much for social engineering.

4. Saakashvili should lay off the pipe (oil pipe) and let the popular voice determine its own destiny. That would work in Russia’s favor, and Georgia’s.

5. We need to stand with our BEST ally if worst comes to worst. Those Georgians embraced democracy, America, and modernity, and they have done so in a way that calls us to take action. They are one of the first Christian nations in the history world and were proud to serve with us in Iraq (while Putin tried to hamstring us in the United Nations). Georgia even helped in assuaging the petroleum hegemony Russia has over Europe. Russia too should be an ally once again, but should earn that title.

But for now, Russia needs to step the heck off. Seriously. >>